23rd
I expect that in a project the estimates at first will be inconsistent as the team jells and gets their arms around the problem space and their solution. But over time their estimates will begin to have a kind of consistency to them that make velocity a meaningful tool for estimating throughput & backlog.
If there are context changes within a project I believe you’d go through a settling period where estimates were of limited value, but that after a while a new equilibrium would be established.
I don’t think the velocity before and after the context changes would be comparable, at least not in the general case. If they were in a specific case it would either be an accident or a function of the team normalizing the values.
The team normalizing the values is such a key component that it almost stands by itself for why velocities across projects (with different teams) can’t be compared.
